Программа 30.09.2021 (ENG)




Date and time of the event:  30.09.2021, 11:00 — 19:00
Address: Republic of Kazakhstan, Nur-Sultan, Hilton Astana Hotel (EXPO), Str.Sauran 46,
Conference hall: Meeting Room 3
Start of registration: 10:00
Conference ID (Zoom): 225 722 2883
Access code: 555kz


Organizers: International Center for Geopolitical Forecasting «East-West», Association of Political Studies in Nur-Sultan.


Objective: Constructive analytical coverage of modern threats and contradictions in Afghanistan to ensure regional security in the Central Asian region. Subsequent advancement in the information field of expert assessments in the field of security in Central Asia through the prism of potential threats and changes in the geopolitical situation from the Taliban in the short — medium and long term. Promotion and popularization of Kazakhstan’s foreign policy initiatives aimed at strengthening regional security and global stability.


Tasks: Expert discussion about Inclusive Taliban government as a dilemma of the model of a modern state structure, new principles of the world order and approaches in the field of geopolitical cooperation. Demonstrate the role of Kazakhstan in the implementation of purposeful work to provide a scenario in the selection of strategic partners by public discussion of the declared topic and informational support of the event. Forecasted challenges, as well as proposals to reduce threats to the national security of Central Asia.


 Questions for discussion at the international round table

«Inclusive Taliban government is the dilemma of the modern state structure model. Finding a Balance «

Session 1. International Agenda 2021: Geopolitical turbulence and geostrategic tensions around Afghanistan. 

  • The victorious war of the Taliban-as one of the «contractual» versions. Who is behind the rise to power and legitimacy of the Taliban? 
  • A big game to move the global terrorism platform from the Greater Middle East to the Middle East. The space of instability in Greater Eurasia: another controlled chaos or a new global disorder? 
  • Restoring the legitimacy of State power in Afghanistan through inclusive peaceful dialogue, taking into account the interests of all social, political, ethnic and religious groups in the country. 
  • Forecasts of possible scenarios in Afghanistan. Short-and medium-term plans of the main actors. 
  • Geopolitical features of Central Asia: the interest of world and regional powers from a military-strategic point of view. A geopolitical game that translates Afghan instability to the north. Options for projecting Afghan instability to Central Asia. 
  • Central Asia’s peacekeeping potential: are there opportunities for mediation? Updating the national security system in the region: new challenges related to Afghanistan. Measures to protect Central Asia within the framework of the CSTO and SCO. 


Session 2. Security and future of Afghanistan. 

  • Afghanistan as a potential springboard for terrorist organizations: forecasts and assessments, the balance of forces of the United States (ISIL, Al-Qaeda, the Islamic Movement of Uzbekistan, etc.). A view from Pakistan, China. India, Iran, Russia, and Central Asian countries. 
  • International consequences of the likely squeezing out of the territory of Afghanistan of the groups «ISIL «(DAESH), «Al-Qaeda». Activation of terrorist groups in neighboring countries: Tajikistan, Uzbekistan, Kazakhstan, and the Russian Federation. 
  • The regime of political power of the Taliban movement. New format of social structure in Afghanistan – what can it be today? Risks for the female part of the Afghan population. 
  • Is there an economy in Afghanistan: what are the opportunities for recovery? Will the Taliban engage in drug production to generate revenue and what measures are needed to combat drug trafficking? 
  • Afghanistan as a source of refugees. Possible escalation of the migration crisis for Afghanistan’s neighbors, perceptions and possible responses in Central Asian countries. 


Session 3. China as a likely new source of stability in Afghanistan. 

  • China’s Cooperation with the New Afghan Government: History and Specifics of Sino-Afghan Relations in the XX-XXI century. What is behind the friendship between Beijing and the Taliban?
  • The Taliban for China is a factor in stabilizing the military-political situation, and a guarantee of the security of Chinese projects in Afghanistan. 
  • China and Pakistan: a new axis of Afghan security? The China-Pakistan Alliance and its impact on the future of Afghanistan. Search for answers in the China-Pakistan-Afghanistan-India equation. 
  • The future of the Belt and Road Initiative in the context of geopolitical turbulence around Afghanistan. Beijing’s geopolitical goals: Afghanistan as a land bridge to the Middle East. Expansion of the economic corridor. 
  • Whether China is ready to take responsibility for restoring and rebuilding Afghanistan: expectations, assessments, and reality. 


Moderator: Nugmanova Karlygash Zhandildinovna – Doctor of Political Sciences, Professor, President of the International Center for Geopolitical Projection «East-West», Director of Political Research Associations in Nur-Sultan.   


10: 00 Registration of participants.
10:30 – 11:00 Welcome coffee break.
11:00 — 11:15 Moderator’s opening remarks: 

Nugmanova Karlygash Zhandildinovna.

11:15-1 1:40 Welcome speech
11: 50 -12: 00 Session 1. International Agenda 2021: Geopolitical turbulence and geostrategic tensions around Afghanistan.



12: 00-12: 10 Arral Azizullah, Political scientist, Afghanistan-Kabul. Title: «Human rights from the sky in Afghanistan».
Mehmet Iqbal Emil Durre, Candidate of Political Sciences, expert, Turkey. Topic: «Current situation in Afghanistan and Central Asia in the context of Turkey’s policy strategy»
12: 10-12: 20 Tolipov Farkhod Fazylovich, Director of the Non-governmental Scientific Institution «Bilim Karvoni», Republic of Uzbekistan, Tashkent, Topic: «Playing with the result of lose-lose: lessons from Afghanistan».
12:20 – 12:30 Kochubey Marianna Anatolyevna, Chairman of the Scientific Advisory Center at the CIS ATC, Police Colonel, Doctor of Law. Topic: «Terrorist threats to the states of the Central Asian region in connection with the situation in Afghanistan».
12:30 – 12: 40 Saksena Siddharth Chairman of the Cambridge Forum on Central Asia-University of Cambridge-Professor of «Shanghai Cooperation organization as a priority organization for stability and progress of Afghanistan, Central Asia and Eurasia».
12:40 – 12:50 Mars Sariev, Political Scientist Bishkek, Topic: «Options for projecting instability to Central Asia».
12:50-13:00 Mullojanov Parviz Ph.D. Political scientist, orientalist, independent researcher, France, Paris, Topic: «New Taliban government-composition, first steps and prospects».
13: 00-14: 00 Lunch.
14: 00-14: 10 Sanjay Deshpande, Director of Center for Central Eurasian University of Mumbai, political sciences PhD candidate India, Delhi-Mumbai. Title: «Afghan Crisis and future of regional geopolitics: Lessons for India».
14:10-14:20 Kabaziev Manarbek Shakirovich, Deputy Chairman of the Board of the Institute for Foreign Policy Studies under the Ministry of Foreign Affairs of the Republic of Kazakhstan. Topic: «Current state and prospects of Afghanistan’s development».
14:30-14:40 Rakhimov Kubatbek Kalyevich, PhD in economics, MBA, Executive Director of the Center for Strategic Solutions. Bishkek.  Topic: «Humanitarian aid to the people of Afghanistan in Central Asia – economic and other problems».
14:40-14:50 Martin Malek, PhD in Political Science, Professor, Austria-Vienna.  Topic: «Austria, the Afghan diaspora in it and the Afghan crisis». 
14:50-15:00 Kozyulin Vadim Borisovich, Professor of the Academy of Military Sciences, Director of the Center of the Institute of Actual International Problems, (Russian Federation, Moscow).

Topic: The Big Game won’t do any good: Geopolitical risks of a new competition for influence in the region.»

Session 2. Security and the future of Afghanistan.
15:00-15:10 Manjoor Afridi, Policy Think Tank, Sinologist Professor Pakistan, Islamabad. Topic: «Taliban Government in Afghanistan: Opportunities and Challenges for Pakistan».
15:10-15:20 Andrey Kazantsev, (Russian Federation, Moscow) Subject: «Scenarios for the development of the situation in Afghanistan and the threat of religious extremism in Central Asian countries». 


15: 20-15: 30 Sherali Rizoen, PhD candidate of political sciences, independent analyst;

Mahmoud Giyosov, independent analyst. Topic: «The situation in Afghanistan: challenges and threats for Central Asian countries».


15:30-15:40 Kosimsho Iskandarov, Doctor of Historical Sciences, Professor, Chief Scientific Secretary of the National Academy of Sciences of Tajikistan. Topic: «The Taliban’s victorious march to power: who is behind the surrender of Afghanistan to the Taliban? «
15: 40-15: 50 Kanatbek Aziz, Director of the Research Institute of Western and Central Asian Politics, Corresponding Member of the National Academy of Sciences of the Kyrgyz Republic, Doctor of Political and Legal Sciences, Professor. Topic: «The role and security issues of Kyrgyzstan in the context of political turbulence in Afghanistan».
15:50-16:00 Poloskova Tatyana Nikolaevna, Doctor of Political Sciences, First-class State Councilor of the Russian Federation, Chairman of the Interregional Public Movement. «Eurasian People’s Union». Topic: «Drugs in Afghanistan. Why the arrival of the Taliban won’t change anything.»
16:00-15:10 Аuelbayev Bolat Alimkhanovich, Chief Expert of the KISI Representative Office under the President of the Republic of Kazakhstan in Almaty. Topic: «The Taliban in power: problems and prospects».
16:10-16:20 Shabir Ahmad Khan, Prof. Dr Director Area Study Centre (Russia, China & Central Asia) University of Peshawar, Peshawar, Pakistan.

Topic: ‘The Afghanistan imbroglio: Way forward for Afghanistan and the Region».

16:20-16:30 Yakushik Valentin Mikhailovich, Doctor of Political Sciences, Professor at the National University (Ukraine, Kiev) Topic: «Is the prospect of implementing an alternative socio-political development strategy in Afghanistan realistic?».
16:30-16:40 Koishikulov Turaly Khamitovich, Colonel-General, Deputy Chief of the CSTO Joint Staff Moscow. 
16:40-16:50 Andrey Korobkov,  Doctor of Political Science, Professor, Vice President of the Chair Program, Professor at the University of Nashville, USA. Topic: «Afghanistan and the changing geostrategic course of the United States».
16:50-17:00 Aparna Panda, Doctor of Political Science, Professor, Director of the South Asia Future Initiative, Hudson Institute USA, Washington.
17:00-17:30 Coffee break
Session 3. China as a likely new source of stability in Afghanistan. 



17: 30-17: 40 Shaimergenov Timur Tulegenovich, Candidate of Political Sciences, Deputy Director of the Library of the First President of the Republic of Kazakhstan. Topic: «The geopolitical situation around Afghanistan: who benefits from the Taliban’s rise to power?».


17:40-17:50 Anton Bugayenko, Expert in China, Shanghai-Almaty.

 Topic: «The future of Chinese policy in Afghanistan».

17:50-18:00 Paramonov Vladimir Vladimirovich, Candidate of Political Sciences (Ph.D.), founder/head of the Central Eurasia analytical Group and the Internet project of the same name, www.ceasia.org. Topic: «Bilateral security cooperation between China and Central Asian countries: Myths and reality».
18:00-18:10 Vavilov Nikolay, Expert on China, Russia, Moscow Topic: «Xi Jinping’s Geopolitical Doctrine: ‘Belt and Road Initiative’ Transport Corridors in Central and South-East Asia».
18:10-18:55 Chatham House Format

 Ms. Mira Alazizi, Diplomat of the UAE Embassy in Kazakhstan.


Abdildina Bakhyt Zhabaykhanovna, Head of the UN-GCC Center in Kazakhstan.

Alexey A. Koropchenko, Head of the Representative Office, Director of the Center, Adviser to the Embassy.

Nurgalieva Banu Ganievna, President of the Civil Alliance of Kazakhstan.

Abisheva Marian Asarovna, Director of the Institute of Diplomacy of the Shutova Academy of Public Administration under the President of the Republic of Kazakhstan

Shutova Zauresh Yesdauletovna, Head of the office of the Foundation named after F.Ebert.

Dmitry Bagdulin, Deputy Director for Analytical Work of the Agency for Ethno-National Strategies, Moscow.

Tazhibaev Alibek Timitaevich, Head of the Eurasian Monitoring Center.

Rassim Chelidze, Doctor of Theology, expert of the Association of Religious Research Centers.

Kazkenov Ruslan Kazbekovich, Chairman of the Civil Peace Association, member of the Human Rights Commission under the President of the Republic of Kazakhstan

Myrzabekov Genghis Darkhanovich, Chief expert of ICGP «East-West».

Kuspanov Arnur Bagdatovich, PhD, Director of the Center for Analytical Work of KazUEFMO.

Kamen Spassov Velichkov, Representative of the European Union in Kazakhstan (ISTC).


18:55-19:05 Summing up the results. Making recommendations

Moderator: Nugmanova Karlygash Zhandildinovna.

19: 05-19: 15 Delivery of certificates.
19.15 Collective photo. Closing ceremony of the international round table meeting.